Starting this Tuesday (27), a new mass of cold polar air will advance over the center-south of Brazil, bringing down temperatures once again until next Saturday (31). And while some headlines claim this could be the most intense cold snap of the century, weather experts actually hope for a cold as strong as last week’s, or slightly more intense — with chances, yes, to be the most intense cold wave this year, but it seems an exaggeration to predict that it will be the coldest wave in the last century.
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According to Climatempo, a new cold front is beginning to advance over southern Brazil, extending to the central region of the country and bringing rain and low temperatures to several Brazilian cities. What makes this cold even more intense is the cold polar air mass coming next, with a strong risk of frost for cities in states like Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, as well as some areas in São Paulo, Mato Grosso do South of Minas Gerais and the extreme south of Rio de Janeiro.
In general, weather forecasts are generated from complex atmospheric models, which integrate different data and make simulations for the next few days. Meteorologists have been following the latest simulations and, in the case of this strong mass of cold air, it has been identified for more than two weeks; therefore, it is a cold that was already being followed. Therefore, predictions made in advance should be viewed with caution, considering that these are extreme events and there are chances that conditions will change by then.
Willians Bini, Head of Agronegócio, at Climatempo, explained to FreeGameGuide that the previous models, for around a week, had been indicating sometimes intense cold front, sometimes less intense, but the most important thing is the consistency of this cold. Given these variations in the simulations, it is not possible to say that this will be the greatest cold wave of the century, as we are seeing being reported around. With this, an alert that it will be a very intense cold was issued for sectors such as agriculture and civil defense, because, on the one hand, frost threatens the plantations and, on the other, the cold can be deadly for people who live on the streets and away from shelters.
As the cold front advances, climate models also update themselves — and Bini points out: “It really will be intense cold, but will it be the worst in the last 5 or 10 years? It’s hard to say now.” The likely chances, according to the director, are that it will be a cold as intense as last week, or at most a little more intense than that. What draws the public’s attention is that one cold front followed by another is not that common, even though it is not unprecedented. “People were already unaccustomed to intense cold and, mainly, waves followed by cold. But this fact is nothing new within Brazil’s climate history”, emphasizes Bini.
In other words: for this week’s cold front, south-central Brazil can expect a similar scenario to last week’s, including frost, freezing temperatures in the southernmost regions of the country and, occasionally, snow in some locations where the conditions are more favorable. However, it is still too early to say that this is the biggest “friaca” in Brazil this century – so beware of sensational statements on the subject!